New estimates from UW School of Medicine project 80,000 coronavirus deaths in the USA by July… even with the lockdowns in place
(Natural News) As we’ve been explaining for weeks, it will be a miracle if the Wuhan coronavirus kills anything less than 100,000 Americans by the time it’s all said and done. The real focus now should be preventing a million deaths in the USA, which is achievable if we stay under lockdown conditions for 7-8 weeks total while blocking the borders and halting all inbound flights.
Now, a new pandemic forecast from the University of Washington School of Medicine projects 80,000 deaths in the USA over the next four months.
For the record, our own pandemic projection models (revision 3) currently say it will be sometime in May that the USA reaches 80,000 deaths, but then again, our own projections have been consistently too low.
The analysis warned that based on current trends, demand for [ICU beds and ventilators] would far exceed capacity for COVID-19 patients as early as the second week of April.
During the epidemic peak — also set for some point in April — as many as 2,300 patients could die every day, according to the IHME models.
This was the case even if the population adhered to strict social distancing measures.
In other words, these numbers are already “baked in” and can’t be stopped by the social distancing lockdowns, according to researchers. They are probably correct about that point.
If lockdowns are ended prematurely, there will be millions of deaths in the USA before Election Day
If the lockdowns are ended prematurely, there will be millions of deaths in the USA, according to both UW researchers and our own models here at Natural News, which originally predicted 2.16 million deaths by July 4th if social distancing was not put in place (that model was announced in early March, before the lockdowns began. Fortunately, that changed the trajectory and 2.16 million is no longer our projection.)
Our best current projections put the USA at around 100,000 deaths by the first half of May. Of course, this is all subject to change depending on how society reacts. More lockdowns means fewer deaths, but also more economic pain for the nation. As of this writing, we are at 1,100 deaths in the USA and rising fast:
Also from Yahoo News:
The analysis estimated that approximately 81,000 people in the US will die from the virus over the coming four months.
Estimates ranged between 38,000 and more than 160,000.
It forecast that a total of 21 US states will need more ICU beds than are currently available and that 12 states may need to increase their capacity by 50 percent or more to accommodate patient needs.
The surge of hospitalizations will, of course, very quickly overrun many hospitals across America, resulting in a much higher fatality rate due to a lack of front-line medical care.
The bottom line? No, bro, this isn’t “just the flu,” and the denialists are #covidiots.
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